Turkey's foreign policy toward its neighboring countries, particularly Syria and Lebanon, is shaped by historical legacies, national security concerns, and aspirations for regional influence. The modern Turkish state, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP), has been characterized by a revival of neo-Ottoman sentiments, which advocates for increased Turkish authority and influence over regions that were once part of the Ottoman Empire. This paper examines Turkey's views toward Syria and Lebanon within the context of its ambitions for regional hegemony and its perceived desire to reestablish a sphere of influence reminiscent of its Ottoman past.
Turkey and Syria: A Complex Relationship
Historical Context
Turkey's engagement with Syria has historical roots that date back to the Ottoman era when the two regions were part of the same state structure. The dissolution of the Ottoman Empire after World War I and the subsequent establishment of modern nation-states in the Middle East left unresolved territorial and ethnic dynamics, particularly regarding the Kurdish population and opposition groups that have sought autonomy or independence in northern Syria.
Current Geopolitical Interests
Security Concerns: Turkey's primary interest in Syria is staving off the rise of Kurdish autonomy. The involvement of the Kurdish militia, the People's Protection Units (YPG), in the Syrian Civil War has raised alarms within Turkey, as Ankara views the YPG as an extension of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party), which it designates as a terrorist organization. Consequently, Turkey has launched several military operations in Syria, including Operations Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch, under the guise of counterterrorism while aiming to create a buffer zone free of Kurdish influence along its southern borders.
Humanitarian and Refugee Policies: Turkey has hosted a significant number of Syrian refugees since the onset of the civil war in 2011. The Turkish government has attempted to utilize these refugees as a bargaining chip in its foreign relations, particularly with the European Union, arguing for more support in managing the refugee crisis. In pursuing a more expansive role in Syrian territory, Turkey has expressed a desire to facilitate the return of refugees to "safe zones" it has established through military operations.
Neo-Ottoman Ambitions: Turkish officials have repeatedly emphasized the cultural and historical ties between Turkey and Syria. Erdoğan's government often characterizes Turkish military operations as efforts to protect Sunni Muslim populations in Syria interested in restoring stability. This narrative evokes nostalgic views of the Ottoman Empire, coupling military engagement with thoughts of a Turkish-led revitalization of the region.
Turkey and Lebanon: Building Alliances
Historical Ties and Political Dynamics
Turkey's relationship with Lebanon has been considerably shaped by historical ties, particularly during the Ottoman era. Despite Lebanon's recent history of civil strife, the Turkish government has actively sought to cultivate a favorable political environment in Lebanon that aids its broader regional ambitions.
Strategic Interests in Lebanon
Political Influence: Turkey has aimed to project its influence into Lebanese politics, often engaging with various factions, including the Sunni Future Movement led by Saad Hariri. Turkey's support for Sunni groups situates it as a counterweight to Iranian influence in Lebanon, particularly through Hezbollah, a group deemed as an adversary to Turkish interests in the region.
Cultural Diplomacy: Turkish cultural initiatives, including investments in education and media, are part of a broader strategy to reshape perceptions of Turkey in Lebanon. Turkish television series and cultural programs are designed to reinforce shared historical narratives and foster positive feelings toward Turkey, ultimately aiming for Lebanon to recognize Turkey as a partner.
Economic and Humanitarian Assistance: Turkey has provided humanitarian aid to Lebanon, securing goodwill and establishing interconnectedness in trade and economic ventures. This approach reflects Turkey's desire to be seen as a benevolent regional power, capable of providing stability and enhancing socioeconomic conditions.
The Vision of a Neo-Ottoman Sphere of Influence
Turkey's relationships with both Syria and Lebanon illustrate its approach of leveraging historical ties, strategic military interventions, and political alliances. While there is a sentiment among some political factions in Turkey that dreams of a resurgence akin to the Ottoman Empire are desirable, it is important to recognize that this is not a universally accepted or operationalized agenda within Turkish politics.
The Realpolitik of Turkish Aspirations
Despite Erdoğan's aspirations, realizing a pan-Ottoman ideal is fraught with challenges:
Regional Pushback: Both Syrian and Lebanese political landscapes are complex and multifaceted. Any attempts by Turkey to overextend its influence or impose its vision on these nations would likely be met with significant resistance from local populations, political actors, or external powers.
International Relations: Turkey's relationships with Western powers, particularly the United States, are heavily influenced by its actions in Syria and Lebanon. The support for Kurdish forces and human rights concerns can complicate Turkey's diplomatic objectives and aspiration for leadership in the region.
Ethnic and Sectarian Tensions: The historical legacies of ethnic and sectarian dynamics remain potent in both Syria and Lebanon. Turkey's involvement must navigate these complexities, or it risks exacerbating existing tensions and fostering instability.
Conclusion
Turkey's views toward Syria and Lebanon illustrate a complex interplay of historical sentiment, national security interests, and aspirations for regional leadership reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire. The country's military interventions in Syria, coupled with efforts to build alliances in Lebanon, reflect Ankara's desire to assert its influence and reshape the geopolitical landscape to its benefit. However, the challenges posed by internal politics, regional dynamics, and international relationships complicate the feasibility of any grand design for a neo-Ottoman resurgence. Ultimately, Turkey's future engagement in Syria and Lebanon will significantly depend on how it navigates these challenges while addressing its ambitions for a restored role in the region.
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