The last few days have left no Turkey watcher without the feeling that President Erdogan will soon have his "Gulf of Tonkin" moment and be able to unleash his forces into neighboring Syria and ultimately Lebanon and Iraq.
The recent catalyst was the "Kurdish" attack on a Turkish Aerospace factory (i.e. drone factory) by a small group of terrorists
The recent terrorist attack on Turkey's state-run aerospace company, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS), marks a concerning resurgence of violence attributed to Kurdish militant groups, specifically the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). This incident highlights the ongoing tensions and complexities surrounding the Kurdish issue in Turkey, as well as the implications for national security and regional stability.
On Wednesday, armed assailants executed a deadly attack on the TUSAS headquarters located near Ankara, resulting in the tragic loss of at least five lives, including four employees of TUSAS and a taxi driver who had unknowingly facilitated the attackers' arrival. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya confirmed that 22 others were injured in the assault, which underscores the brutality of the incident and its impact on civilian life. The nature of the attack, involving coordinated gunfire and an explosion, points to a high level of planning and intent, indicative of organized militant operations.
The visuals captured during the attack further emphasize the alarming security situation. Footage showing the attackers, equipped with firearms and explosives, approaching the TUSAS facility raises questions about security measures in place at vital state infrastructure. This attack is not isolated; it echoes a long-standing pattern of violence associated with the PKK, which has sought greater autonomy and rights for Kurds in Turkey. The Turkish government, along with the European Union and the United States, categorizes the PKK as a terrorist organization, which complicates the domestic perception of the Kurdish rights movement and the broader geopolitical dynamics in the region.
In the response to the attack, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler directed attention towards the PKK, suggesting that such groups continue to provoke violence despite repeated governmental efforts to quell their assaults. His statements reflect a broader sentiment within Turkish leadership that views the PKK not only as a military threat but also as a stubborn adversary resistant to negotiation or peace. This perspective is pivotal in shaping Turkey’s counter-terrorism strategies and its military engagements in predominantly Kurdish regions.
The absence of an immediate claim of responsibility for the attack does not diminish the likelihood of PKK involvement. Historically, such acts have often been linked to the PKK’s ongoing campaign against the Turkish state, particularly in response to perceived injustices or military operations targeting Kurdish militants. The group's resurgence in violence poses a significant challenge for the Turkish government, which has struggled to maintain stability amid a complex interplay of ethnic tensions, political grievances, and security concerns.
In response to the escalation of violence, Turkey might consider a multifaceted approach that includes not only military operations but also a renewed emphasis on dialogue and political solutions. Addressing the underlying grievances of the Kurdish population—such as issues related to cultural rights, political representation, and socioeconomic development—could play a crucial role in mitigating the cycle of violence. However, achieving this balance requires a commitment to long-term strategies that prioritize peace and stability over short-term military gains.
For a known anti-semite, Erdogan's retaliation was "Israeli" in it's thoroughness.
From Al-Jazeera 10/24/24. " Turkey’s Air Force has struck Kurdish targets in Iraq and Syria in apparent retaliation for an attack on a key state-run defence company that killed five people and wounded more than 20.
On Thursday, the Ministry of National Defence said 47 targets were “destroyed” in the aerial offensive on Wednesday, without providing details on the locations that were hit. It said “all kinds of precautions” were taken to prevent civilian harm.
Defence Minister Yasar Guler said Turkish forces struck 29 targets in northern Iraq and 18 in northern Syria."
This is not Syria's first foray into destabilizing it's neighbors as it was involved in an bombing incident in Syria back in 2023 (see an article covering the story here: https://dckurd.org/2023/11/01/turkey-setting-humanitarian-crisis/
We also covered some of President Erdogan's Ottoman fantasies in an article in July
This can also be backstopped by the fact that the United Nations forces are still poised to screen Hezbollah and NOT the Lebanese from Israeli military action and by doing so have left the northern borders wide open for an incursion from Turkey through Syria.
If Erdogan was able to pull off the ballsy move of running through most of Syria and into Iraq (ostensIbly) in his pursuit of Kurdish terrorists, he would encounter slim to no resistance by either of the mentioned countries armies.
He would also be able to pick up most of Lebanon above Beirut and thereby cause the Israelis to have to strongpoint from Beirut which would also stretch their logisitcs chain (possibly to it's limits) making them susceptible to attack/counter attack from a "friendly" arab country just trying to help "FREE LEBANON" which would be the new cry across US campuses.
Whatever the direction, Turkey is truly proving to be the hyena of this desert war and one that is not too shy about picking on the carcas of these failing states.
Commenti