BOLIVAR'S GHOST. A NO NONSENSE PLAN TO TRANSITION VENEZUELA

I ask nothing more for the glory of Colombia than to see it shine as a free and sovereign nation. Simon Bolivar

Title: Amnesty for Transition: A Strategic Roadmap to Democratic Change in Venezuela

Executive Summary: This white paper outlines a phased diplomatic and political strategy to facilitate a peaceful transition in Venezuela by offering conditional amnesty to select members of the Maduro regime. The plan incorporates international oversight, targeted sanctions relief, and electoral guarantees in exchange for cooperation with human rights inspections and eventual democratic reform.

Preface: The Case for Action Venezuela is moving toward the status of a failed state. Some of this is the direct result of the current regime and its fascination with strongman socialism, cloaked in a distorted version of revolutionary governance. The mass exodus from the country—amounting to roughly one-quarter of the population—has left millions living in varying degrees of squalor and instability across the globe. It marks one of the darkest chapters in an already tragic history, another case of a South American nation consumed by wealth, power, and the subsequent descent into cycles of violence and barbarism.

Those of us in the free world understand that, at some point, our governments must be the “bigger man” and take the first meaningful step toward rectifying the situation—reestablishing the people of Venezuela in Venezuela, where they can live with their families and rebuild their lives.

The following is a no-nonsense examination of what would amount to “hold-your-nose” politicking. It is, however, a conversation that must at least be considered—for the benefit of the millions of disenfranchised, if for no other reason.

1. Introduction: The Venezuelan Crisis and Stalemate Venezuela remains locked in a political and humanitarian crisis, with over 7.9 million citizens displaced and the Maduro regime accused of crimes against humanity. International sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and internal repression have failed to yield regime change. A new strategy is needed—one that pairs amnesty for non-violent regime actors with a negotiated path to democratic transition.

2. Strategic Objective To peacefully dismantle Venezuela's authoritarian system in exchange for:

• Guaranteed amnesty for non-violent actors

• Limited regime continuity for face-saving exits

• International normalization and humanitarian access

3. Phase 1: Quiet Engagement & Incentivized Cooperation

• Lead by: Norway, Vatican, Switzerland (neutral parties)

• Deliverables:

  • Limited amnesty for non-violent regime officials

  • UN/OAS access framed as humanitarian (not political)

  • U.S. provides temporary sanctions relief

U.S. Role: Ease Chevron, banking, and remittance restrictions to show goodwill.

4. Phase 2: Controlled Political Opening

• Deploy a joint UN/OAS truth verification commission

• Establish transitional governing council (PSUV moderates + opposition)

• Amnesty expands to military/intelligence excluding direct human rights violators

U.S. Role: Unfreeze limited foreign assets and create debt restructuring channels

5. Phase 3: Elections and Amnesty Guarantees

• Internationally supervised presidential and parliamentary elections

• Maduro either exits or retains a symbolic role

• Legal referendum on final amnesty protections

U.S. Role: Broker ICC deferments in return for truth commissions and reparations

6. Phase 4: Post-Transition Stabilization

• Launch South Africa-style Truth & Reconciliation Commission

• Victim compensation with international funding

• Military reintegration to prevent post-transition coups

7. Risk Analysis & Mitigation

Risk	Mitigation
Maduro refuses to exit	Use elite defections, Brazil/Colombia pressure
PSUV splinters violently	Secure elite protections, safe exit guarantees
Opposition fragmentation	U.S. must pre-coordinate factions (Machado, Capriles)
International backlash	Frame deal as humanitarian, not ideological

Conclusion: Amnesty, though controversial, may be the most viable path to break Venezuela’s stalemate without plunging the country into deeper conflict. This roadmap offers a strategic compromise that balances accountability, transition, and stability.

Recommended for Implementation by:

• U.S. Department of State

• European External Action Service (EEAS)

• Organization of American States (OAS)

• UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)